SALES,INVENTORIES AND REAL INTEREST RATES: A CENTURY OF STYLIZED FACTS

We use Bayesian time‐varying parameter structural vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility to investigate changes in reduced‐form and structural correlations between inventories and either sales growth or the real interest rate in the USA during both the inter‐war and post‐World War II periods. We identify four structural shocks by combining a single long‐run restriction to identify a permanent output shock with three sign restrictions to identify demand‐ and supply‐side transitory shocks. We show that during both the inter‐war and post‐war periods the structural correlation between inventories and real interest rate conditional on identified interest rate shocks is systematically positive; the reduced‐form correlation between the two series is positive during the post‐war period, but in line with the predictions of theory it is robustly negative during the inter‐war era; during that era the correlations between inventories and either of the two other series exhibit a remarkably strong co‐movement with output at business cycle frequencies. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation‐based tests of forward‐looking models under VAR learning dynamics

In this paper we propose a simulation‐based technique to investigate the finite sample performance of likelihood ratio (LR) tests for the nonlinear restrictions that arise when a class of forward‐looking (FL) models typically used in monetary policy analysis is evaluated with vector autoregressive (VAR) models. We consider ‘one‐shot’ tests to evaluate the FL model under the rational expectations hypothesis and sequences of tests obtained under the adaptive learning hypothesis. The analysis is based on a comparison between the unrestricted and restricted VAR likelihoods, and the p‐values associated with the LR test statistics are computed by Monte Carlo simulation. We also address the case where the variables of the FL model can be approximated as non‐stationary cointegrated processes. Application to the ‘hybrid’ New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) in the euro area shows that (i) the forward‐looking component of inflation dynamics is much larger than the backward‐looking component and (ii) the sequence of restrictions implied by the cointegrated NKPC under learning dynamics is not rejected over the monitoring period 1984–2005. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

HOW DO FISCAL CONSOLIDATION AND FISCAL STIMULI IMPACT ON THE SYNCHRONIZATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES?

Using quarterly data for a panel of advanced economies, we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked. We also find: (i) some evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles. Global factors, such as a rise in global risk aversion and uncertainty and a reversal of nonstandard expansionary monetary policy, can also reduce the degree of co‐movement of business cycles across countries. From a policy perspective, our work shows that an inflation targeting regime coupled with simultaneous fiscal consolidations can lead to more business cycle synchronization.     

BUILDING THE MANAGERIAL CAPITAL OF AGRICULTURAL COOPERATIVES IN AFRICA

Agricultural cooperatives in Africa tend to be community‐based organizations defined by principles of inclusion, voluntarism, democracy, equity, autonomy, mutuality and solidarity. This means that they generally operate in accordance with the principles endorsed by the International Cooperative Alliance (ICA). However, only a few of these organizations are successful in commercializing the agricultural produce of their members. In this study, we argue that growth‐problems leading to commercial failure and organizational degeneration in these cooperatives can be attributed to a lack of managerial capital. Drawing on the literature and evidence from the field we set out key management solutions for counterbalancing cooperative principles in the context of rural Africa. These solutions were taught to the leaders and managers of 362 cooperatives at four training events held in Madagascar, Malawi and twice in Uganda. Using a production function for cognitive achievement and key informant interviews, we find that our training contributed to the adoption of the proposed solutions by some of the cooperatives. Using the Ugandan sub‐ sample, we estimate an OLS regression and a PSM model to show that the training translated into higher revenues per member generated through collective commercialization.     

A model of growth with inherited tastes

This research aims at studying a general equilibrium closed economy with overlapping generations and inherited tastes (aspirations), as in de la Croix (Econ Lett 53(1):89–96, 1996). It shows that the interaction between the intensity of aspirations and the elasticity of substitution of effective consumption affects the qualitative and quantitative long-term dynamics from both local and global perspectives. The related literature is extended by showing that (1) the Neimark–Sacker bifurcation found by de la Croix (1996) does not necessarily give rise to fluctuations and (2) endogenous (long-lasting) fluctuations occur through the emergence of period-doubling bifurcations.     

Likelihood evaluation of models with occasionally binding constraints

Applied researchers interested in estimating key parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models face an array of choices regarding numerical solution and estimation methods. We focus on the likelihood evaluation of models with occasionally binding constraints. We document how solution approximation errors and likelihood misspecification, related to the treatment of measurement errors, can interact and compound each other.     

Semi-analytical prices for lookback and barrier options under the Heston model

Decisions in Economics and Finance - Under the Heston stochastic volatility model, we derive semi-analytical formulas for the prices of path-dependent options with payoffs linked to the maximum or...     

Agglomeration dynamics of innovative start-ups in Italy beyond the industrial district era

Building on the literature on agglomeration economies, this study examines how urbanization, industry-diversification, district economics and incubating initiatives are associated to the creation of innovative start-ups in Italy. The empirical analysis is based on a sample of 6018 innovative start-ups distributed across 104 Italian NUTS 3 regions. Our findings show that incubating initiative and industrial districts play a major role for new venture creation and provide support to the positive role of urbanization economies and industry specialization over diversification. Finally, we discuss future research directions grounded on the empirical evidence provided by our study.

     

Public Provision of Private Goods,Self‐Selection,and Income Tax Avoidance

Redistributive taxation should benefit those with low earnings capacity rather than those who choose a lower income to obtain tax savings. Several contributions have highlighted how public provision of work complements can discourage people from lowering labor supply to diminish taxable income. We show how tax avoidance, previously neglected, can alter the conclusions regarding public provision. Tax avoidance breaks the link between labor supply and reported income. An agent reducing his reported income to escape taxes might no longer forego a publicly provided labor complement, because he can now lower his income by avoiding more rather than working less.